Impacts of forestation on the annual and seasonal water balance of a tropical catchment under climate change

Abstract Background This study aims to assess the effects of a forestation program and climate change on annual seasonal water balance Bogowonto catchment (597 km 2 ) in Java, Indonesia. The is rare example Indonesia where has been applied at level. However, since initiated, evaluations only focus planting area targets, while environmental success e.g., impacts hydrological processes have never assessed. used calibrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model diagnose isolated combined five components, namely streamflow ( Q ), evapotranspiration ET surface runoff s lateral flow l base b ). Results results show that from 2006 2019, forest cover increased 2.7% 12.8% total area, same period there was an increase mean temperature, rainfall, streamflow. SWAT simulations changes under scenario were relatively minor, more pronounced scenario. Based scenario, it observed larger smaller than change. Conclusions Although we found minor compared catchment, seasonally, activity decreased during wet season which may reduce risk moderate floods. much attention should be paid way how result severe drought events dry season. Finally, urge importance accounting for positive negative future programs.